A UK minister appeared to "row back" on a commitment to devolve powers over probation and youth justice to Wales, with Westminster set to retain responsibility.

In 2019, an independent commission – led by Lord Thomas, the former head of the judiciary – recommended that justice policy should be "determined and delivered" in Wales.

But, nearly six years on, devolution has stalled, with Welsh and UK ministers suggesting a phased and piecemeal approach to transferring powers as happened in Greater Manchester.

In November, a report set out three options for devolution: transfer of executive powers, full law-making and executive responsibilities, or an agreement on commissioning services.

And, giving evidence to the Senedd equality and social justice committee today, ministers implied the Welsh and UK Governments will pursue the co-commissioning model.

'Sticking plasters'

Lord Timpson, the UK prisons and probation minister, intimated that devolution would not be a priority amid "massive pressures" on the justice system.

Mick Antoniw, the former counsel general or chief legal adviser to the Welsh Government, pointed to "volumes of evidence" that devolution of probation "needs to happen and quickly".

Lord Timpson, who lives over the border but near HMP Berwyn, one of the UK's biggest prisons, said colleagues have had a meeting on local delivery options for youth justice.

He told the committee UK ministers would look at the Greater Manchester model but he cautioned of "huge" pressures and a need for stability.

"If we lurch from problem to problem, we are just going to put sticking plasters all over everything," he said, advocating "sensible, sustainable and evidence-led" policy instead.

'Decade of delay'

Lord Timpson stated he was more concerned about challenges in probation than prisons – warning the service is unstable, with probation officers having an average caseload of 35.

Mr Antoniw pressed his Labour colleague about the need to transfer powers over probation, given that many of the levers for keeping people out of prison are devolved.

"It seems to me there's no logical response to that other than we've had a decade of delay on actually looking at the enormous accumulation of evidence," he said.

"What you seem to be suggesting is that we're going to go through that process of just continually looking at the evidence without ever really coming to a proper conclusion."

Lord Timpson – who was chief executive of Timpson, the retailer founded by his father Sir John, until 2024 – warned probation remained "bruised" from previous reforms.

'Not ruling anything in or out'

"We need to be in a much more stable position before we can start talking about further changes," he said, referring to the Conservatives' "transforming rehabilitation" programme.

Pressed by Adam Price, the former MP and ex-Plaid Cymru leader, Lord Timpson suggested devolution will not be a priority until "massive pressures" stabilise.

Mr Price pointed out that powers over budgets and making laws would remain at Westminster under a co-commissioning model similar to Greater Manchester.

He asked: "Are you saying that...the full devolution of executive and legislative powers, that's not something that is on your agenda?"

Lord Timpson reiterated his focus on making prison and probation services sustainable. Pinned down on the point, the politician replied: "I'm not ruling anything out, I'm not ruling anything in. What I'm focused on is trying to sort out the crisis in our justice system."

'98% full'

Labour's Jenny Rathbone questioned why more than 25% of the 5,000 Welsh prisoners are held in English jails when Wales has nearly 6,000 prison places of its own.

Lord Timpson pointed to capacity pressures with prisons 98.2% full, security in terms of organised crime, and the lack of a category A (high risk) or women's prison in Wales.

He told the committee: "We need to use the estate really efficiently and that means, unfortunately, some Welsh prisoners are not in prisons in Wales."

Jane Dodds, leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats, expressed concerns about research showing Wales has the highest imprisonment rate in western Europe.

Lord Timpson replied: "80% of offending is reoffending and, clearly, something has been going wrong for a long time. Our prisons are growing and we're going to have more people in prison by the time of the next election than at any other time in our history."

'Jagged edge'

In 2019, a Cardiff University report warned of the "jagged edge" of justice, with intersecting responsibilities and Wales often overlooked by Westminster.

Ms Rathbone, who chairs the committee, warned: "I'm concerned about stabilising a broken system because it's costing a fortune to the taxpayer and the individuals caught up in it."

She called for an explanation of "no progress" on matters that have been "discussed endlessly for decades", citing the example of a women's residential centre in Swansea.

Lord Timpson said: "I think we need to look at the options, we need to look at the costs," adding that the key is how to divert women from the justice system in the first place.

Altaf Hussain, a Conservative Senedd member, expressed concerns about deaths at HMP Parc amid a "serious decline in standards" at the prison in Bridgend.

'Drone-proof'

Lord Timpson, whose younger brother was a Tory MP, replied: "They've obviously had a terrible number of self-inflicted deaths at the prison but I think things feel far more stable."

He said the governor told him 98% of problems are down to drugs, with drone-proof windows set to be installed by August 2026. "That will make a significant difference," he said.

Ms Dodds raised wider problems: "The prison inspectorate reported there's not enough food to eat, prisoners are stuck in their cells 21 hours a day [and] self harm has gone up by 60%."

Lord Timpson stressed the Labour UK Government inherited a system in crisis. "I've never known it so bad," he said, pointing to "big strides" over the past 12 months.

He left the scrutiny session more than 20 minutes early to vote in the House of Lords.

'Cold water'

Following the meeting on Monday, the Senedd's equality and justice committee criticised the "deeply disappointing" evidence from Lord Timpson.

Ms Rathbone said "We are very disappointed to hear Lord Timpson say that the UK Government could row back its promises on the devolution of youth justice and probation."

"These policies were supported by several significant constitutional reports and endorsed by the independent commission on the constitutional future of Wales."

"The report from Gordon Brown's commission on the UK's future said new powers over youth justice and the probation service should be made available."

"The Welsh Government has already started the groundwork to prepare because it believed there was a realistic prospect that these aspects could be devolved soon."

"This is in stark contrast to Lord Timpson's evidence before the committee today which seemed to pour cold water on the prospect."