Wales' unwanted title as the nation with the highest "in-country" imprisonment rate in western Europe is set to be solidified due to the expansion of HMP Parc.
The warning came as the expansion, which was approved despite 17 deaths at the Bridgend jail last year, is projected to push the rate to 178 per 100,000 population.
Analysis by Wales Governance Centre warned the projected rate will surpass the average for the whole of Europe (177 per 100,000) and that of anywhere else in western Europe.
The "in-country" rate refers to people held in Welsh prisons, including those from England, with 167 per 100,000 currently compared with 139 per 100,000 across the border.
The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) decision to add 345 places at HMP Parc will increase the prison place surplus in Wales from 393 to an estimated 738 places, fuelling concerns about the country being used to "absorb prisoner overflows from England".
'Enormously high'
Appearing before the Senedd's equality committee on Monday, Rob Jones, a lecturer at Cardiff University, questioned the logic of expanding the Bridgend prison.
He said: "I don't quite understand why that decision was taken to expand that prison at that particular time – one, given the safety problems that have been widely reported on and, secondly, Wales already has the highest 'in-country' imprisonment rate in western Europe."
Pressed about the reasons for the "enormously high" rate, Dr Jones pointed to the impact of poverty in Wales. He raised the example of Finland which has a rate of 51 per 100,000.
The "ill-judged" plans to extend HMP Parc were approved by Bridgend council in November and Dr Jones urged Welsh ministers to ask the UK Government to think again.
He said: "I don't see any reason why Parc should be expanded when there are still no answers about Wales' imprisonment rate... I think there needs to be a very serious conversation about tackling overimprisonment in Wales, not just overcrowding."
'Elephant in the room'
Since HMP Berwyn in Wrexham opened in 2017, the average number of prisoners held in Wales has increased by 34%, according to a Wales Governance Centre briefing.
The report found the number of prisoners held in England would need to increase by more than 21,000 to equal the rate in Wales following the proposed expansion.
Dr Jones told the committee: "If the Welsh Government is serious about its...commitment to reduce the number of people in prison in Wales – now is the time to show it."
His latest factfile on imprisonment showed a record number of deaths (21) across the Welsh prison estate in 2024. Of the 17 at HMP Parc, eight were attributed to natural causes.
He said: "I think the natural cause deaths are the elephant in the room actually when we think about deaths in prison. [That's] not to say those others that we saw, particularly at Parc last year with regards to substances, are not, of course, to be taken seriously."
'Jagged edge'
Dr Jones expressed concerns about the standards of health care in prisons, which is devolved to Wales, with the average life expectancy of prisoners "significantly lower".
Asked about housing, Dr Jones said the "jagged edge" of Wales' justice system is "alive and well" when it comes to homelessness and prisoner release. He warned councils, housing services and probation cannot deal with the "churn" created by short-term sentences.
Labour's Mick Antoniw asked about people from black or minority ethnic backgrounds being disadvantaged "in just about every respect of the criminal justice system".
Dr Jones replied: "I don't think I've seen any real improvement nor change," warning of "zero" investment in research on criminal justice in Wales.
He pointed to evidence of two-tier sentencing and cautioned Wales is "completely lost" in the context of an England-and-Wales justice system. He raised the danger of recommendations – such as those from the Lammy review and Thomas commission – sitting on a shelf.
'No determined effort'
Jane Dodds, the Liberal Democrats' leader in Wales, asked about a high and growing proportion of Welsh prisoners held on remand before their trial or sentencing.
Dr Jones warned of a lack of understanding to explain a 10% increase in prisoners on remand in 2024 (804) after reaching record levels in 2023 (730).
He raised the example of Welsh ministers' women's justice blueprint, with half of magistrates saying they had never heard of the plan which promotes alternatives to remand.
On a lack of "vital" information about parental imprisonment, the lecturer said he was led on a "merry dance" before his FoI for Welsh data was rejected on cost grounds.
Asked about short-term sentences for women, Dr Jones said: "There never really seems to be any determined effort to get to the bottom of problems."
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