Public Health Wales and Diabetes UK Cymru have joined forces to call on people to know their risk of Type 2 diabetes

The number of people living with diabetes in Wales is rising faster than previously projected, new data from NHS Wales has revealed

The latest figures (2025) show that 230,371 people aged 17 and over in Wales are now living with diabetes — an increase of 7,685 people, or 3.5 per cent, in a single year (222,686 in 2024). This rate of growth significantly outpaces projections made by Public Health Wales in 2021/22, which forecast that Wales would reach 260,000 – or one in 11 people diagnosed as living with diabetes by 2035. At current rates of growth, that milestone could arrive considerably earlier.

A further 269,747 people in Wales are estimated to be living with prediabetes — placing them at very high risk of developing the condition — and an estimated 58,906 people are living with undiagnosed Type 2 diabetes, unaware of the damage that may already be occurring. In total, approximately one in five adults in Wales is currently living with diabetes or prediabetes.

Type 2 diabetes accounts for most cases. Left unmanaged, it can lead to serious complications including sight loss, kidney disease, nerve damage, and cardiovascular disease — robbing people of their independence, their quality of life, and in too many cases, years of their lives. The condition disproportionately affects people living in areas of greater social and economic challenge and those from South Asian, Black African, and Black Caribbean backgrounds, deepening existing health inequalities across Wales.

However, with early action, Type 2 diabetes can often be prevented entirely. For those already living with the condition, remission may be possible — and with the right knowledge and support, people can live well with diabetes and avoid the complications that previous generations experienced as inevitable.

Today, Public Health Wales and Diabetes UK Cymru is coming together to urge people across Wales to search; lower my type 2 diabetes risk Wales, so they can take the free Diabetes UK Know Your Risk tool as a first step, and then get further information and support on a range of services that can help lower their risk of Type 2 diabetes, such as the All Wales Diabetes Prevention Programme (AWDPP), Healthy Weight Healthy You offer, Let’s Prevent app and Diabetes Resource webpages. With the key message being that taking early action can make a big difference to your future health.

Case Study 1

Alex Hicks, from Cardiff, was first diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes in his early 30s. Having always been very active in his teenage years into his 20s, he experienced some lifestyle changes as his family grew and work pressures took up more of his time. Even though Alex had some family history with late onset Type 2 diabetes, he hadn’t appreciated that he may have been at risk at such a young age and so his diagnosis came as a complete shock.

After a weekend stay in hospital, being kept under observation and receiving the formal diagnosis of type 2 diabetes, Alex jumped into action, making exercise a key part of his daily routine by cycling to work, in addition to changes to diet. After a short while, Alex was able to bring his blood glucose back into a normal range, coming off the metformin medication and maintaining it for over a decade. It hasn’t always been straight-forward, however.  

Alex said:  

“When the pandemic hit, my opportunities to exercise diminished overnight and I found myself working long hours from home and leading a more sedentary workstyle. Before I knew it, some of those symptoms had crept back, so I feared the worst and after a visit to GP and a blood test, it showed my blood sugars were high again.”

“I was in denial to start with, because I was quite disappointed having managed my condition so well for over ten years. I had to have a reset to work out how I was going to manage it this time as it was a lot more stubborn than before and I was quickly on the maximum dosage of metformin.”

“I’d heard of the X-PERT Programme through my work and had previously talked myself out of it because of the time commitment. But after getting a referral from the GP and adjusting my work pattern to accommodate the 2 hour a week commitment for 6 weeks, it was through this programme I heard about Counterweight for the very first time.”

“It was the Counterweight dietician that has really made the difference. Through their expertise, coaching and support, combined with the total diet replacement programme, I have been able to come off all the diabetes medication and have lost 20% of my total bodyweight. Having the support of the Counterweight programme and its coach has been a real gamechanger for me maintaining a healthy lifestyle. I have still been able to take part in charity cycle rides and my last blood test has taken me back into the normal range, which is great.”  

Case Study 2

Elaine Adams from Barry was first diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes around thirty years ago. Having not been feeling well and particularly lethargic, she booked in to see her GP. Although she was aware of a history of diabetes on her father’s side of the family, Elaine had initially assumed she was experiencing a different health problem altogether. While surprised by the diagnosis, Elaine didn’t let it slow her down.

Elaine said:

“I had spent the last year preparing for the London Marathon. I managed to run it a couple of months after my diagnosis, with diet, exercise and support helping me manage it.”

“I’ve stayed active since, but that doesn’t mean there haven’t been times I’ve fallen off the wagon – Christmas, Easter and birthdays are always hard. But I’ve always tried to get back on top of things when that happens.”

Since her diagnosis, Elaine has been keen to push against the stigma around Type 2 diabetes, as she knows the best support comes from being open about her diagnosis. Over the years, she’s volunteered for Diabetes UK and facilitated peer support opportunities which she cites as the best thing for helping her maintain her own health.

David Taylor, Transformation Director at the Tackling Diabetes Together Programme, Public Health Wales, said: “This rapid increase of people now being diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes is a national crisis for Wales, but thankfully it is one we can respond to.

“Being diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes is never about it being that person’s fault, but often, if that person had had access to the right information and was given the support they needed early enough, then lowering their risk, pushing their diagnosis back or reducing future complications if diagnosed, are all very real possibilities.

“We want to support people to live long and healthy lives in Wales and to do this we need to increase public knowledge of both risk – and how to reduce this risk. These don’t have to be huge life changes. Even small actions like taking a 10-minute walk after meals can help. Prevention is often achievable if we act early.”

Rachel Burr, Director of Diabetes UK Cymru, said:

“It’s important to find out whether you’re at risk of developing type 2 diabetes – so you can take action to protect your health. By using our simple Know Your Risk online tool, you can get advice on whether you’re at risk and receive guidance on what steps to take next. It's free and only takes a few minutes.”

Dr Sarah Davies, GP in Cardiff and Primary Care Lead for Diabetes in Wales, said:

“We are seeing rising numbers of people being diagnosed with type 2 diabetes in Wales, with especially fast-growing numbers in people under the age of 40. 

“We see type 2 diabetes more commonly in people with strong family histories of type 2 diabetes, in people who live with overweight, obesity or other conditions such as high blood pressure.  If we can support people to understand their risk of developing type 2 diabetes and how they can take action to reduce it, we can make a real difference to lives and also reduce the impact on the health care system.  If a person does develop type 2 diabetes, the sooner we know about this the better because together we can take early action to reduce the risk of complications such as kidney, eye or heart conditions, occurring later.”

To find out your risk of Type 2 diabetes and support to help lower that risk, tap here https://phw.nhs.wales/knowledge-article/lower-your-risk-of-type-2-diabetes